IRANS NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

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IRANS NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

Postby Sabiha » 22 Jan 2006, 22:26

We have noticed with alarm the sheer amount of coverage Irans nuclear programme has been receiving this past month, and in particular this week. BBCs documentary pertaining to the Iran issue has been aired several times this weekend. Whether the BBC is assisting to desensitize the public towards potnetial military action, or whether it is trying to make the public aware of what is going on so as to avert military action, will only be known with the passage of time.

The main debate is now that iran can enrich Uranium, will it enrich it solely for energy usage like it maintains it will or will if enrich it further to develop nuclear weapons? The US and its allies say that Iran is making bombs. Their justification? When inspectors performed a cotton swab test, they found Uranium enriched to percentages way higher than that used for normal energy usage. Iran maintains that the uranium on the swabs were those of samples which they had taken from the Pakistanis, from whom the whole setup for a nuclear plant was bought on the black market.

The pakistanis arent willing to co-operate by letting in inspectors into their nuclear programmes, and the inspectors cant be sure where the uranium samples they collected are from.

The Amercians, the British, Russians, Indians, Pakistanis, Israelis, and god knows whom else have active nuclear programmes, and have produced and tested nuclear weapons. Is it right for the UN to ask Iran to stop their uranium enrichment programme for energy? And it is so wrong to turn the other eye, as happend with Israel, India and pakistan when they created their nuclear weapons? Is this a genuine move to make the world a 'SAFER" place, or is it the US's ploy to be able to militarily act against Iran, just as they did with Afghanistan and Iraq?

If they decide to use Arms, what can we, as normal people do to prevent such an occurence? Thoughts? Ideas anyone?
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Postby qarrar » 24 Jan 2006, 02:25

First I must commend the amount of issues raised and second praise the interest in world affairs/politics among women. Let’s see what can we make of your piece then?
For starters one point that has to be taken into account is that Iran along with other countries is a signatory to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) agreement in respect of which the west claims it is in breach. This clearly empowers the IAEA to refer to Iran to Security Council which can use any force necessary to force Iran to comply with their demands and that can include military action (See in respect of Iraq and the invasion of Kuwait). To add to that Iran’s presidents frankness isn’t helping his countries cause either (See his comments with regards to Israel and the Holocaust).

Military action seems unlikely on the part of US at this immediate point of time but cannot be ruled out, and to be honest it will be no more than air strikes, even the loons at the Pentagon cannot envisage an invasion like the one in Iraq in respect to Iran for obvious reasons (See Iranian resistance in the Iraq-Iran war plus the usual outcry it will cause from the world at large).

This isn’t the end of the whole argument though. Current global oil prices are very volatile and any sharp increase in their price will send the global economy into turmoil especially that of the US. Iran contributes about 10- 13% of world’s oil demands and any action against Iran is certain to disrupt these supplies (that’s why some clever Americans have this quote, “it’s about the economy, silly!”).With regards to Iran’s nuclear programme, well now that is being built by the Russians. Knowing that they were a former super power again any action against Iran is likely to take Moscow’s feelings very strongly and I don’t think the Russians are too optimistic like the Americas for action against Iran. Well that is just a few issues raised in this complex saga of Iran’s nuclear programme and its supposed showdown with the west.
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Postby Sabiha » 29 Jan 2006, 15:42

Im sure the comment about women wasnt made with the intention of degrading anyone, so i will thank the author and move ahead to address the points put across.

1)"The west can refer Iran to the UN security Council"- This is true, but should only happen once there is conclusive proof of Iran enriching Uranium to levels much higher than neccessary. The reason it hasnt been referred yet is because this proof has yet to be obtained. This was verified by Mohammed AlBaredei, the Director-General of the IAEA.

2) Military strikes in the short run do seem inconceivable. However in the long run, increased press will help justify any action which may be taken. The process of desensitization against Iran had begun when Iraq was attacked.

3) With regards to Oil, If sanctions are imposed on Iran, im sure they will retaliate by reducing their oil supply. Esp, that which goes abroad. However lets please note what you mentioned earlier, "its about the economy"! The US, an economy which has been built solely on cheap energy....coal and oil, is now in control of Iraq! Iraq, who was a victim of sanctions which hurt the citizens of the country, and not the then president Saddam. Iraq whose oil reserves have not been depleted yet, and whose "oil for food" programme is still in existance. It wouldnt not be that inconceivable for the US to take advantage of Iraq, and then use their Military might against Iran, hoping in the long run to gain some modicum of control over Iran too.

Whatever the US will do, we can rest assured that they have their best financial interests at heart. And even any Kyoto treaty will not be able to stop them from further polluting our environment, and will yeild no rammifications for them. Unlike the poor islamic countries, where sanctions imposed will hurt the innocent public and not the government.
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Postby qarrar » 29 Jan 2006, 16:49

My comment about women was meant to be praise and nothing else and again I thank you for only having regard to the true and honest meaning of it. Just to clarify and correct you on your third point, the Oil for food programme is now disbanded and no longer exists. About the occupation of Iraq, and your suggestion that they (The Americas) have enough supply at hand, Iraq is still 2 years after the invasion under producing oil with pre war levels being much higher than they are now, partly due to the sabotage caused by insurgents and also due to the creaking infrastructure which is now showing its age and effects of neglect by the Baath regime. If Iran were to be put under economic sanction that will mean that they will not be able to export any goods including oil to any other nation and the only means of revenue will be to sell the goods in the black market at a much lower price like what Iraq did in its 12 years under sanctions. The IAEA is due to meet on the 2nd of February at their headquarters in Vienna to decide whether to send Iran to the Security Council or not. Let’s see what happens there after which I will provide my latest analysis on the matter.

Lastly the US are not signed up to Kyoto even though the account for a quarter of the worlds carbon dioxide emissions.
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Postby Sabiha » 29 Jan 2006, 19:34

The point was exactly that. Under the pretext of 'helping' Iraq with producing oil, A lot can be siphoned out! Thus, developing their oil feilds or whatever they are called, and using them mostly for thier own benefit.

As for the Food for oil programme, i wasnt aware of it having been disbanded. Thanks for clarifying that. With regards to the meeting to be held on the second of Feb, which is not to decide to refer Iran to the Security council just yet. I beleive that Irans deadline with complying some of the IAEA demands is March 6th. The meeting has been requested to discuss implementation of 'safeguards' with regards to Iran. Please check http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/MediaAdvisory/2006/MA200602.html

I hope that my views are being taken in the context that it has been written in, and that is solely to promote discussion. No 'attack' so to speak is being made on anyone :D
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Postby qarrar » 29 Jan 2006, 20:08

Thank you for bringing that to my attention. I was under the impression that it was going to be referred to the Security Council at the earliest opportunity.

See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4656878.stm

Your comments are being taken in their true context and even if they indicate the slightest of hostility :twisted: which they are not :evil: I am sure we can resolve that through dialogue, no need for an armed conflict. :)
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Postby Sabiha » 30 Jan 2006, 15:48

Actually, the meeting which will take place is for England, Germany , and France to sit with Iran and the IAEA and come to a solution. See Adam Boltons comments on Sky news this morning. The deadline for Iran is March 6th, especially as the IAEA is not yet prepared to refer it to the Security council. However, you are right, a lot does depend on this meeting. On whether or not they can come to a peaceful solution.

Now, be a gentleman and let the lady have the lastish word!!! Otherwise there may very well be armed conflcit! :wink:
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Postby minhaal2000 » 30 Jan 2006, 21:13

i have watched that bbc documentary and it comes all the time..

russia has offered to enrich uranium in its country and then export it to iran.. iran says it will think about it...

and to add to all this Hamas has won the parliamentary elections in palastine...
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Postby qarrar » 31 Jan 2006, 22:43

See this latest article which indicates the path for Iran to be sent to Security Council is now being cleared http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 665086.stm

I am not adding to the argument so need to take up arms :)
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Postby Sabiha » 01 Feb 2006, 18:41

Yes, it does seem like they are going to be reported to the security council...not yet refferred. After Bush's arrogant speech last night, and the retaliation of Irans President, maintiaing that they will commence their nuclear enricment on an industrialised scale if they are to be reported, all we can do is wait and watch. One hopes that economic sanctions are not put upon Iran, because this will just harm the people of Iran, whom bush wants to have as "FREINDS". There was a woman last night on Hardtalk from the EU, who was mentioning these exact words. If any of you saw the same episode please do let me know her name so i can look it up on their website. Lets just hope that the IAEA, Europe, and the UNs security council do not cave in to george bushs way of thinking.

I think there are enough countires out there taking up arms against other countries and within their own. I'll leave the violence to them for now...what say? ;)
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Postby qarrar » 02 Feb 2006, 17:26

Was this the women (Benita Ferrero-Waldner) who gave the interview, given in text on the BBC website below :?:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/h ... 669888.stm

Unfortunately I didn’t get the chance see the programme myself, instead was listening to Hassan Sadik identifying the distinctions between Ghadeeri and Yazeedi Islam with particular emphasis on Namaaz yesterday. Anyone wanting to listen to live broadcasts, these are available on http://www.ksmnet.org starting at 10pm local Tanzanian time.

Latest update on Iran issue available below:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 673880.stm

I am just too busy right now to provide my analysis on the matter but the rest keep up the good work.

Hmm seems like a nice idea (for our purposes :evil: ) but don’t you think promoting peace is better idea rather then leaving them in conflict :?: :roll:
Last edited by qarrar on 04 Feb 2006, 03:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Tayyaba » 03 Feb 2006, 00:49

i have been also following this topic...n came across this...
http://www.iran-daily.com/1384/2491/html/
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Postby Tayyaba » 04 Feb 2006, 16:39

so now..The UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, votes to report Iran to the UN Security Council over concerns about its nuclear programme.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4680294.stm
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Postby qarrar » 04 Feb 2006, 22:11

Aiwa, Iran is going to be reported to the Security Council. Twenty-seven states out of 35 on the IAEA board backed the move, with three against and five abstentions. Interestingly Russia and China agreed to support the resolution on condition it did not contain any immediate threat of sanctions against Iran. Only Venezuela, Cuba and Syria voted against it.
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Postby Sabiha » 05 Feb 2006, 02:04

Yes, they have voted to report Iran, but thankfully are not going ahead with sanctions or any other action untill march 6th, when the IAEA will make public their final report. These are the facts....i want to know what your views are concerning Irans reaction to this predicament. They arent going to cooperate with the IAEA to the extent which they have been up till this point? Are they right to stay stubborn and firm or should they relent?

With regards to China and Russia, they had already made comments earlier in the week which suggested this would be the case. Im sure the other countries were using all the muscle they had to persuade Russia and China to agree to report Iran, before they actually took it this far!!!

Oh yes...i wanted to ask with regards to:
identifying the distinctions between Ghadeeri and Yazeedi Islam with particular emphasis on Namaaz


Please do tell me the differences btwn the two, because i havnt even heard of ghadeeri islam, and yazeedi islam, unless ghadeeri implies shias, and yazeedi implies the obvious....the way yazeed followed it. But thats just me hazarding a guess. Please do clarify.

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